For more than half a decade, Elon Musk has been selling the dream of global internet access beamed from space—a technological leap he claims could not only bridge the digital divide but also fund humanity’s colonization of Mars. Starlink, the satellite internet arm of SpaceX, has made dazzling strides since its launch, building the world’s largest satellite constellation and serving millions of users across 75 countries.
But beneath this spectacular engineering achievement lies a valuation structure that’s beginning to buckle under financial and operational pressure. According to analysts, up to $43 billion of value could be wiped off SpaceX’s books if Musk doesn’t pivot quickly.
Since its public rollout in 2020, Starlin has grown rapidly, with over 2.6 million customers now relying on the service for broadband access. Its value proposition is simple: high-speed internet in remote and underserved regions where terrestrial networks struggle.
With more than 5,500 satellites already in orbit—and plans to scale that number to 42,000—Starlin is Musk’s most ambitious infrastructure play since Tesla’s Gigafactory’s.
In the private investment market, Starlin is a juggernaut. Investors and venture funds have flocked to SpaceX, driving the company’s valuation to $180 billion as of 2024, with roughly 60% of that—about $108 billion—tied to the perceived future potential of Starlin, according to Quilt Space founder Chris Quilt. But that future is now facing serious headwinds.
On paper, things still look optimistic. Quilt estimates Starlin’s revenue will rise 58% this year to $12.3 billion, driven by both consumer expansion and commercial contracts. But here’s the catch: the service is likely still unprofitable or running on razor-thin margins.
The cost of launching, operating, and replacing tens of thousands of satellites is astronomical. Moreover, SpaceX continues to subsidize user terminals heavily, which sell for a few hundred dollars but cost significantly more to produce and deploy.
